Study Finds America’s Homicide Rate on Track To Hit Historic Low This Year

Homicide rates in major American cities this year are on a pace to reach their lowest levels in more than a century, according to a study by a non-partisan think tank that has been tracking crime rates in 36 major cities since 2019.The findings, based on data drawn from the public dashboards of city law enforcement agencies, continue a pattern of falling crime rates from a pandemic-era peak in 2021 but show that many crimes are now headed below even pre-pandemic levels. In the case of homicides, the figures are on track to be the lowest since 1900.The studies would seem to provide a talking point for tough-on-crime politicians heading into the midterm elections, but the authors of the report, prepared by the Washington-based Council on Criminal Justice, note that similar improvement has been recorded in both Republican- and Democratic-led jurisdictions.“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity,” the CCJ’s president and CEO, Adam Gelb, said in an interview with the Associated Press.The report itself says the findings point “to a range of possible influences, including changes in criminal justice operations and strategies, technological advances, and broad shifts in society and culture.”In perhaps its most dramatic finding, the study finds that in 30 cities providing appropriate data, homicides during the first half of 2026 were 18 percent below the already record lows recorded in the same period a year earlier.Robberies were down by 17 percent and carjackings by a stunning 47 percent from the first half of 2025 while aggravated assaults and gun assaults were down by a more modest 2 and 6 percent respectively, the CCJ reported. Domestic violence incidents were up by 8 percent and sexual assaults by 3 percent.When compared to crime levels in the first half of 2019 — before the Covid-era spike — dramatic improvement was also recorded in some areas. Homicides in the studied cities were down by 31 percent, robberies by 41 percent and carjackings by 51 percent. Less dramatically but still encouraging, gun assaults were down by 17 percent, sexual assaults by 13 percent and domestic violence by 13 percent.Looking at non-violent crimes, residential burglaries were down 50 percent from the first half of 2019 while drug offenses were down 15 percent. Car thefts were down a modest 3 percent while shoplifting was up by 5 percent.Among the 30 cities providing appropriate data, the most dramatic drop in homicides compared to the first half of last year was at Lincoln, Nebraska, which has not had a homicide this year. Other large drops were seen in Rochester, New York, at 76 percent; Baltimore, Maryland, at 68 percent; and Philadelphia at 49 percent.On the negative side, homicide rates are up this year in four of the cities covered by the study with Austin, Texas, up by 74 percent; Norfolk, Virginia, by 36 percent; Minneapolis by 26 percent; and Pittsburgh by 4 percent.

Study Finds America’s Homicide Rate on Track To Hit Historic Low This Year

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