The Ceasefire War

The latest American-forced cessation of a military confrontation in Lebanon seems to betray Washington’s eagerness to exit the Iran war. President Trump is pressuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to curb the Israeli Defense Forces’ efforts to crush Hezbollah. A tiff between the leaders is hyped up in the press. Two months into what they call the “ceasefire war,” Israelis are frustrated. None of that will pave a path to a good Iran deal.Mr. Trump, in his seminal book, “The Art of the Deal,” cautions against appearing “desperate” to reach a pact, lest the other party “smells blood.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate on Tuesday that “nobody is begging for anything here.” Yet officials at Tehran — and Mr. Trump’s political opponents — are smelling blood. They believe the president concedes to Iran’s demand diplomatically to link Lebanon to the Strait of Hormuz. Washington’s preferred interlocutor in Iran, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X Monday that if Israel further harms Hezbollah “we will not only halt the path of negotiations, but we will also be in direct confrontation with the enemy.” His posting follows a White House leak to Axios, according to which Mr. Trump admonished the Israeli premier to abort a plan for striking Hezbollah leaders hiding at Beirut. Mr. Trump’s detractors at home are taunting him over higher gasoline prices. As the midterm elections heat up the president dreads losing Republican congressional majorities. The July 4 semiquincentennial celebrations and soccer’s World Cup are tainted by debates over the Iran war. Mr. Netanyahu’s top political opponents accuse the Israeli premier of being too deferential to Washington at the expense of Israel’s security.In a way, the reported rift between the American and Israeli leaders could serve both politically. Mr. Trump can refute allegations that he launched a war “for Bibi.” Their phone conversation Monday shows that Mr. Netanyahu “is truly fighting to secure Israel’s interests,” a former close adviser to the Israeli premier, Mark Regev, told I24 television. “I’m glad that he can confront the American president — and that they can then reach an understanding.”A leading Israeli columnist, Amit Segal, writes that many reported details on Monday’s phone conversation, as leaked to Axios, were exaggerated. Either way, Mr. Segal adds, Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu ended up agreeing that “Israel will not strike Beirut and in exchange Hezbollah will not strike Israel proper.” Such deals, though, rankle many Israelis. Each time the IDF is making progress in degrading Hezbollah, they say, Washington orders a halt. Mr. Trump is chasing an elusive deal with the Islamic Republic even as Tehran is unable to decide whether to keep up its war footage or buckle under American pressure, including a blockade that cripples Iran oil exports. All the while, as a top contender to succeed Mr. Netanyahu in the upcoming Israeli election, Gadi Eisenkot, writes on X, “Lebanon is right here, Metula is under fire, Israeli settlements are empty — this is unacceptable.”Hezbollah is claiming that it isn’t a party to agreements between Israel, Washington, and Beirut. The next time the American-Iranian talks will hit a snag, therefore, Tehran will order its terror proxy to ignore the rules and attack Israeli targets again. Leaving the Jewish state to the mercies of terrorists who act on behalf of America’s foe is no way to make a deal. Winning Lebanon’s ceasefire war, instead, could force Iran to cry uncle.

The Ceasefire War

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