The Dark Horses Expected to Enter The Race For UN Secretary General

On the eve of a crucial Friday poll in the race to lead the United Nations, Turkish and United Arab Emirates diplomats are outside candidates who are ready to throw their hats in the ring, diplomats tell The New York Sun.Ankara man, Feridun Sinirlioglu, is believed to want to replace Antonio Guterres, who will end his stint as UN secretary general on December 31. The Turk would bank on lukewarm support so far for the seven declared candidates for the job.None of the veto powers — which for the first time are expected to opine on the declared candidacies in a secret poll Friday — seem to back the current field of candidates. America, in contrast, might be amenable to a Turkish or Emirati UN chief. One candidate who might also join the race, then, is a United Arab Emirates veteran diplomat, Lana Nuseibeh. Both Ankara and Abu Dhabi are vying to position their countries as arbiters of global power. Ms. Nuseibeh, a former UAE ambassador to the UN, has the advantage of gender. As no woman ever held the top spot, there’s a strong push at Turtle Bay for a change in leadership. Unlike the UAE, Turkey has several prominent detractors. One current UN Security Council member, Greece, is lobbying hard against its neighbor. Athens is pleading with council members to nix Mr. Sinirlioglu’s candidacy, and sources say that France is open to veto the Turk in future secret polls. Greece has several maritime disputes with Ankara. It also fears that a Turkish UN chief would reverse the institution’s opposition to Turkey’s occupation of northern Cyprus. Separately, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly hostile to Israel, which would raise fears at Jerusalem that under a Turkish chief the UN would turn even more critical than it already is under Mr. Guterres.Mr. Sinirlioglu, who currently heads the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, served as Turkey’s ambassador to Israel between 2002 and 2007, when relations were less fraught than now. He also tried to mediate between the countries in later years. Yet Jerusalem is likely to oppose his candidacy. “A UN secretary general is supposed to be independent of his country’s positions, but it never really works like that: Erdogan is the one who is pushing Sinirlioglu’s candidacy, so that’d be a red light for Jerusalem,” a Western diplomat at Turtle Bay tells the Sun. Ms. Nuseibeh, in contrast, might be less objectionable, as the UAE maintains close ties with the Jewish state. Mr. Erdogan “expended a considerable amount of energy in repositioning Turkey and rebuilding his image as a sort of mediator, an international broker,” an Ankara watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Sinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. Mr. Sinirlioglu is a smart, established diplomat, he adds, but “that doesn’t mean he’d be independent of Erdogan on Turkish government positions.”If Mr. Sinirlioglu and Ms. Nuseibeh joined the race to head the UN, they would need to do so soon — perhaps even after Friday’s security council vote. That ballot is expected to disappoint the current seven candidates — all Turtle Bay insiders — that have already declared their candidacies. The UN Charter charges the 15-member council with recommending a secretary general candidacy to the 193 UN members for approval. The council process involves secret straw ballots to indicate members’ encouragement, discouragement, or no opinion on declared candidates.After several rounds this fall, Costa Rica’s Rebecca Grynspan has led the field among the seven declared UN chief wannabes. Ms. Grynspan’s tepid support, though, could disappear Friday, when the council is scheduled to conduct a “color coded” poll.While still secret, this next-stage polling would separate the preferences of the five veto-wielding permanent council members from the other, elected ten. A “discourage” vote by America, Russia, Communist China, France, or Britain could all but kill a candidacy.Several diplomats tell the Sun that Washington would indicate a veto on all the declared candidates, including Ms. Grynspan. Even if the International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, would be acceptable to America, Russia and perhaps Communist China are likely to oppose him. The Friday secret balloting is bound to reopen the race, allowing new candidates to vie for the top position. After ten years in which Mr. Guterres has diminished the UN clout, America is seeking a capable manager, rather than a would-be arbiter of world affairs. “They’re looking for a secretary, not a general,” a UN diplomat said.

The Dark Horses Expected to Enter The Race For UN Secretary General

The Dark Horses Expected to Enter The Race For UN Secretary General

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