The Eight Races in the East To Watch Early in the Night

It will be days before the final results of the midterm elections are known, including the final House margin and whether or not Democrats are able to take the Senate. But 10 races on the East Coast and in the eastern United States will offer quick insights into the national mood. Democrats are widely expected to win back control of the House on Tuesday night, though the margin of seats earned range from 225 to 245, depending on the polling models. The Senate is trickier, with the stars needing to align for Democrats in several Trump-won states, including some that he carried by double digits in 2024. One state which will close its polls relatively early on Tuesday night is Virginia, where — luckily for political observers — four House seats may act as a barometer for Democrats’ chances. Polls in royal blue Virginia close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The first race to watch in the commonwealth is the Seventh District, the most competitive and most evenly divided in the state. The seat is currently held by a Democrat, Congressman Eugene Vindman, who won his 2024 race by less than three points. If Republicans are in any way competitive in this district — meaning coming within five points of winning — then the GOP may have a chance at keeping their House majority, and it would likely mark the worst polling miss in modern history. Mr. Vindman is currently favored to win re-election by double digits, according to a model from the forecasting firm VoteHub. The Second District, which surrounds Norfolk in the southeastern part of the state and has a large military and veteran population, is not only Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in Virginia, it’s also one of their best pickup opportunities in the country. Congresswoman Jen Kiggans is running for a third term after she won in 2024 by less than four points. The same day, President Trump carried the district by only two-tenths of one percent. If Democrats take the Second District, they are heavily favored to win a House majority, though if Ms. Kiggans is the only Virginia Republican to fall, then it could be just a single-digit margin takeover in the House.Democrats are also hoping that the First District could fall into their column this year. Congressman Rob Wittman, a 10-term Republican incumbent, has been aggressively targeted by Democrats who recruited a local prosecutor, Shannon Taylor, to run against him. Ms. Taylor and Mr. Wittman are currently tied in the polls, even though he won re-election in 2024 by 13 points. Mr. Trump won the First District by five points in 2024, a significant underperformance compared to Mr. Wittman. Governor Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, won the district by two points in her landslide 2025 run for the governor’s mansion, becoming the first Democrat to carry the district in a statewide election since Senator Mark Warner in 2008. If Republicans lose the bellwether district, it means Democrats are all but guaranteed to take the House majority and win a comfortable victory, possibly flipping 20 to 25 seats. Another nightmare for Republicans would be if they lose the Fifth District in the southern part of the state — a deep red area that has not been represented by a Democrat since 2011. The last Democrat to hold the seat, Congressman Tom Perriello, is running to unseat Congressman John McGuire, who won his 2024 bid by 15 points. Ms. Spanberger lost the Fifth District by eight points while winning statewide by more than 15 points. If Mr. McGuire goes down, then Democrats will not only take the House majority, but they could be looking at their most significant wave election in two decades, with the opposition party likely picking up as many as 35 seats. One hour before polls close in Virginia, many will turn their eyes to another longshot pickup opportunity in Kentucky, where voting will stop at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. The lone somewhat competitive district in the commonwealth is the Sixth District, where the incumbent, Congressman Andy Barr, is now the Republican’s nominee for the U.S. Senate. Democrats have nominated a prosecutor and former Navy officer, Zach Dembo, who is narrowly leading in the polls against former state Senator Ralph Alvarado for the open seat. The Sixth District, which covers Lexington, went for Mr. Trump by 15 points in the last election. Fast forward to 7:30 p.m. Eastern, when polls will close North Carolina and Ohio — two states with must-win Senate races for Democrats. The former governor of North Carolina, Roy Cooper, is widely expected to flip his state’s Senate seat to Democrats by a fairly comfortable margin, though two House races in the state will disclose more about the national mood, given Mr. Cooper’s history of overperforming the generic Democratic brand. North Carolina’s First District and Third District were redrawn by Republicans in the legislature last year in order to make it easier to defeat Congressman Don Davis, the Democrat who represents the First District. Mr. Trump narrowly won Mr. Davis’s district in 2024 at the same time Mr. Davis, a pro-military, pro-Israel moderate, was re-elected. In the redrawn map, which pulls from more conservative areas of the Third District, exposing the Republican incumbent, Greg Murphy, Mr. Trump would have won by around 10 points. While Mr. Trump would have won the new Third District by 14 points two years ago, it will be a historic disaster for Republicans if Mr. Murphy is defeated by a Democratic former state representative, Raymond Smith. A summer poll conducted by a Democratic super PAC had Mr. Murphy up by only three points. Cook Political Report has moved the race from “solid” to “likely” Republican. The GOP is clearly nervous about Dr. Murphy’s seat, given Speaker Mike Johnson is closing out the campaign by rallying with him on Tuesday. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is running to reclaim a seat in the Senate after losing re-election in 2024. Mr. Brown’s race is not likely to be called until late into the night given the competitive nature of the race, though one area of the state to watch is Mahoning County, which includes Youngstown. The county is another bellwether for observers as Mr. Brown carried the county by 20 points when he won in 2018 and lost it by two-tenths of one percent in 2024. If Mr. Brown can flip the county back, then he will be the favorite to win on Tuesday.

The Eight Races in the East To Watch Early in the Night

The Eight Races in the East To Watch Early in the Night

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