Third-Party Candidates Could Tip Balance of Power in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa Senate Races

Republicans are growing anxious that Libertarian candidates could pull enough votes away from their Senate nominees to cost the GOP control of the chamber this November. The concern is sharpest in four states — Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa — where tight races mean even a small third-party vote share could swing the outcome.“This is a race where you have Republicans who are dissatisfied, Republicans who aren’t too happy with how things are going,” pollster James Johnson, whose firm JL Partners produced one of the most accurate models of the 2024 race, told The New York Sun. “They’re also not happy with some candidates. So therefore, the chance of them going to a third party is higher in this election than perhaps in previous ones.”“If these candidates get anything over 1 percent, say 1 to 4 percent, then that absolutely will have an impact,” Mr. Johnson said.All four states typically lean Republican, but strategists say frustration with President Trump, including his handling of the war with Iran and his expansion of executive power, could push some conservatives toward protest votes for Libertarian candidates.“Libertarians, we believe, could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races,” a Republican former Ohio state lawmaker working on a project to limit the impact of spoiler candidates, Gene Krebs, told the Associated Press. Of the Ohio race specifically, he said, “The Libertarian can easily pull enough votes away from the Republican so that the Democrat wins.”In Ohio, former Libertarian Party national chairman Bill Redpath is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown. Republican campaign officials, who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity, said they’re less worried about Iowa — where Libertarians rarely appear on the ballot — than about Ohio, Kansas, and Texas.Third-party spoiler tactics aren’t limited to one side. An organization with Republican ties has circulated fliers promoting a socialist candidate in Ohio, an apparent attempt to siphon votes from Mr. Brown. The group behind the fliers, Enough Promises Ohio PAC, received $2.5 million from Conservative Americans PAC, according to federal disclosure records, the AP reports.In Kansas, Libertarian David Graham is running for the second time, facing Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a race so close that an outside group has taken notice. Aaron Day, founder of the New Hampshire-based StarkFreedom PAC, believes a modest ad investment could add a percentage point to Mr. Graham’s numbers — not to elect him, but to draw votes from Mr. Marshall and help Mr. Hamilton win.Mr. Day, a self-described libertarian-leaning former Republican, said his broader goal is to see enough Democrats elected nationally to create inertia against the Trump administration. “I am a fan of gridlock at this point in time,” Mr. Day told the Johnson County Post. “I am for gridlock and for there being actual accountability for this administration.”Mr. Day cited the war with Iran, the cost of living, tariffs, and surveillance concerns as reasons he has broken with the GOP. “The single-party rule right now under Trump, where he has all three branches of the government, has not worked,” he said.For his part, Mr. Graham has pushed back on the spoiler framing, saying he believes he draws support evenly from both major-party candidates rather than tipping the race toward either side. In Texas, Libertarian Ted Brown took just 2.3 percent of the vote in 2024 when Republican Senator Ted Cruz won easily. But that was still a record 267,039 votes in a Texas Senate race. This year’s race is far tighter, pitting Democrat James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said Mr. Paxton’s legal and ethical controversies could push some conservatives toward Mr. Brown. “Nobody’s voting for the Libertarian. It’s a protest vote,” Mr. Hamilton told the AP. “They are going to be voting that way because they don’t want to vote for Paxton, and this is an option.”Mr. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist since Ron Paul’s 1988 presidential run, said some conservatives have soured on Mr. Trump. “Some libertarians supported him thinking he was an anti-war candidate. And that’s where he’s lost them,” Mr. Brown said. “But my view and a lot of libertarians’ view is that separation of powers is very important. This president has seized way too much power in this imperial presidency.”He rejected criticism that he’s merely spoiling Mr. Paxton’s chances: “They could avoid that problem by nominating a better candidate.” He said he offers Democrats the same response: “You can’t spoil a system that’s already rotten. There are a lot of people making a protest vote, and there’s good reason to.”Asked about the spoiler label directly, Mr. Brown told NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday”: “Both sides are saying the same thing. Democrats are saying, hey, that I’m taking votes away from Talarico, and Republicans say I’m taking votes away from Paxton. But in reality, I’m just promoting my candidacy and the Libertarian Party. We need an alternative in this party, in this country. And the two parties are just not providing it.”

Third-Party Candidates Could Tip Balance of Power in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa Senate Races

Third-Party Candidates Could Tip Balance of Power in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa Senate Races

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