Why Putin Has So Much Room To Maneuver in War Against Ukraine

When faced with adversaries with a different culture and history, it’s critical to study and understand their basic cultural and historical assumptions.It is vital to consider how their backgrounds will lead them to interpret your words and actions — and manage consequences and repercussions.As a specific example, Russian history has been vastly different from Western history. Western assumptions are not compatible there. Russia’s is a history of strong, often brutal leaders. It is a history of bloody wars against a wide range of people (Mongols, Poles, Cossacks, Germans, Swedes, Central Asian tribes, and other Russians). It is a history of early defeats, long-suffering endurance, and eventual victories.The 20th century began with a disastrous Russian defeat at the hands of Japan. Then, a long, brutal war at the hands of Imperial Germany. This was followed by the Russian Revolution (a civil war between communist and anticommunist forces). Then it faced a losing war against Poland (which had help from France). Finally, it had a war with Finland — which began badly but eventually led to a Finnish defeat through the sheer mass of the Soviet Army. Despite failures and costly wars, Russia’s still here. During that period, millions of Russians were starved to death in a deliberate domestic cleansing strategy imposed by Stalin. After suffering horrendous losses to the Nazis in the opening stages of World War II, the Soviets rallied and were the most important force in defeating Nazi Germany. An estimated 20 million Russians died in the struggle (nearly 50 times the number of American losses in both the Atlantic and Pacific campaigns combined).This is the world of Vladimir Putin and the people who support him.Casualties? Russians have taken casualties before. Sanctions? Russians have starved before. Diplomatic isolation? Lenin and Stalin isolated on purpose.When we design strategies for dealing with Mr. Putin, we must remember the historic context which produced him — and the mindset he learned from it.Of course, no polls of the Russian people can be trusted. A poll by the Levada Center, the only independent pollster in Russia, reported that a national poll including 1,616 Russians showed 78 percent support the Russian military operations in Ukraine. Ask yourself this question, though: If you were an everyday Russian who was asked over the phone if you support Mr. Putin’s military campaign, what would you say?The fact is, everyday Russians would have likely indicated similar support for Lenin, Stalin, or even Ivan the Terrible. They simply don’t want to be jailed, killed, or sent to the front lines for their dissent. This pervasive environment of fear gives Mr. Putin much more maneuvering room — and a much longer time horizon for defeating Ukraine — than most westerners would think possible.Considering the long Russian tradition of suffering, enduring, and then winning, it is conceivable that Mr. Putin will be able to push through casualties for far longer than any Western country could imagine.Getting to peace in Ukraine may be a much more challenging, exhausting, and time-consuming project than we expected. As a KGB Colonel, Mr. Putin’s idea of discomfort, attrition, and acceptable losses are far different from ours or any of our allies’.Until we understand and adapt to these historic and cultural differences, Russia’s war on Ukraine will continue like all of its wars have — long, slow, and brutal.

Why Putin Has So Much Room To Maneuver in War Against Ukraine

Why Putin Has So Much Room To Maneuver in War Against Ukraine

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