Wave of Retirements Gives Republicans Early Edge in 2024 Races That Will Decide Control of House of Representatives

WASHINGTON — A chaotic year for the House is coming to a close with more Democrats than Republicans deciding to leave the chamber, a disparity that could have major ramifications in next year’s elections.About two dozen Democrats have indicated they won’t seek reelection, with half running for another elected office. Meanwhile, only 14 Republicans have said they are not seeking another term, with three seeking elected office elsewhere.More retirements can be expected after the holidays, when lawmakers have had a chance to spend time with families and make decisions ahead of reelection deadlines. So far, though, the numbers don’t indicate the dysfunction in the House is causing a mass exodus for either party.“Members sort of knew that this is what the institution is currently like when they chose to run for office,” said a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Molly Reynolds. Brookings, a think tank, maintains a database of vital statistics on Congress, including retirements. “Some of them may well be feeling frustrated at this point in time, but anybody who has been elected to Congress in recent years, they’re not surprised at what they’re finding when they are getting to Washington,” Ms. Reynolds said.Republicans certainly had the most high-profile exits. Representative George Santos, became only the third lawmaker to be expelled by colleagues since the Civil War. Congressman Kevin McCarthy was the first-ever speaker removed from that office by his colleagues. He opted to leave effective December 31 rather than serve among the rank-and-file.Yet it’s the departure of a handful of Democrats in competitive districts that has Republicans thinking the overall retirement picture gives them an advantage in determining who will control the House after the 2024 elections.Representatives Katie Porter of California, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia proved they could win toss-up congressional districts in good election cycles for Democrats and not-so-good cycles. They are all seeking higher office within their home states. Ms. Porter and Ms. Slotkin are running for the U.S. Senate. Ms. Spanberger is running for governor in 2025.Democrats are also losing a six-term representative, Dan Kildee of Michigan, to retirement, leaving them with another competitive open seat to defend in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election. Representative Jennifer Wexton is not seeking reelection due to health challenges in a district that leans Democratic but is more competitive than most.On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans leaving office generally represent districts that Democrats have little chance of flipping. They’ll be replaced by Republicans, predicted Representative Richard Hudson, the chairman of the House Republican campaign arm.“Retirements are a huge problem for the Democrats. They’re not a problem for us,” Mr. Hudson said.The exception is Mr. Santos, who represented a competitive New York district. Democrats hope a former Congressman, Tom Suozzi, can win back the seat, which he gave up when he ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022.Congressman Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican, said he found it “a bit of a surprise” that the number of Democrats leaving office exceeded the Republican exits given all that has transpired this year.“Politically, I think we’re very well positioned for 2024,” Mr. Cole said. “I just think the margins are going to remain narrow no matter who wins. The number of competitive seats is so much lower than it was even a decade ago, the polarization is so much greater, that it’s hard to move big numbers. Whoever wins the presidency probably wins the House.”Sometimes, legislators in the states tip the scales in determining the makeup of Congress. It’s one reason there are so few competitive races.Three incumbent House Democrats from North Carolina have essentially been left with little opportunity to return after GOP lawmakers in the state drew new boundaries for their congressional districts. What were once competitive seats became near locks for whichever Republican emerges from the state’s primary elections.Representative Jeff Jackson, a Democrat, decided to run for attorney general rather than attempt to run again for a Charlotte-area seat that he had just won in the 2022 midterms. Representative Wiley Nickel, a fellow freshman who flipped a toss-up district in the last election, also announced he would not be running, and would focus instead on a potential U.S. Senate bid in 2026. And Representative Kathy Manning said she won’t file for reelection under the current maps but would run if a federal lawsuit seeking to overturn the new districts is successful.Ms. Manning said the city of Greensboro in her district was split into three pieces and combined with rural counties. She won in 2022 by a margin of 9 percentage points, but she said the new district gives a 16-point advantage to a Republican candidate.Democrats are hoping court-ordered redistricting in Alabama and Louisiana will favor their side and effectively make the redistricting battles a wash.Ambition is also playing a role in the retirement trends. About half of the Democrats not seeking reelection to the House are seeking office elsewhere. That includes three members running for the seat once held by Senator Feinstein, who entered the Senate in 1992 and served more than three decades before her death in September. Ms. Slotkin is running for the seat Senator Stabenow has held for more than two decades. Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota is running for the White House against a fellow Democrat, President Biden.“If you are interested in a higher office, you’re going to be sensitive to when those things come up. They don’t always come up,” Mr. Reynolds said.Still, a few lawmakers do attribute their leaving, at least in part, to the dysfunction they’ve witnessed in Congress. Congressman Brian Higgins, Democrat of New York, doesn’t plan to wait for the election to get out. He’s retiring sometime in February.“We’re spending more time doing less. And the American people aren’t served,” he said when announcing his retirement last month.Congressman Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican, described a similar sense of frustration in his retirement announcement. He’s been critical of Republican leaders for “lying to America” that the 2020 election was stolen and downplaying the January 6 Capitol riot.“Our nation is on a collision course with reality and a steadfast commitment to the truth,” Mr. Buck said.

Wave of Retirements Gives Republicans Early Edge in 2024 Races That Will Decide Control of House of Representatives

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