Welcome to Washington: The Week That Spooked Senate Republicans

With just over five weeks to go until the midterm elections, many Republicans are wondering one thing: whether or not their significant cash advantage is going to be able to save their majority. This past week had some genuinely worried for the first time that Democrats may retake the Senate. Welcome to Washington, where the Senate is kicking off its last week of work before the elections. On tap this week is a bill to stick data centers with utility bills, the Protect College Sports Act, and a number of oversight hearings, among other things. What will hang over the north side of the Capitol at the same time are a spate of polls, campaign spending reservations, and political analysis that shows a Senate majority that appears to be slipping away. At the beginning of last week, many were caught off guard that two prime Senate candidates for the GOP — Iowa’s Ashley Hinson and Michigan’s Mike Rogers — had decided to call for an end to the Iran war. Senator Susan Collins voted for several war powers resolutions to try to end the war, including once just on Thursday. Senator Jon Husted, facing a tough re-election battle, also called for an end to the war in an interview with Politico, though he did not vote for the war powers resolution this past week. Then came the poll results. Even though President Trump has already doled out tens of millions of dollars to candidates in recent weeks, the polls so far have not budged. Democrats opened leads in a number of Senate races around the time the Iran war began, and since then, they have only gained ground. The Democratic nominees in Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have either maintained the size of their leads or expanded them. The Michigan nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, has kept a consistent — if narrow — lead over Mr. Rogers.In Iowa, Ms. Hinson is now trailing her opponent, state representative Josh Turek, according to polling. A Marist poll found Mr. Turek leading by eight points, while InsiderAdvantage, a Republican polling outfit, found Mr. Turek led by just one point. In the median aggregate of polls, Mr. Turek now leads Ms. Hinson by around one point. A more shocking poll for Republicans was one out of Kansas which showed Senator Roger Marshall trailing the Democratic nominee, pastor Adam Hamilton. A survey from Wedgewood Polls found Reverend Hamilton leading Dr. Marshall by two points. That came after another poll from Emerson College showed the pastor leading the Republican senator by a single point. Polling analysts also put out predictions for which party is most likely to win each seat. Four of the major groups that do so — the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, SilverBulletin, and Decision Desk HQ — all predict that Republicans are not favored to pick up a single Democratic seat this year. There are states like Michigan and New Hampshire that some groups have put into their “toss-up” categories, though the consensus is that both of those seats are expected to remain in Democratic hands.The founder of the Cook Political Report, Charlie Cook, said on ABC News’s “This Week” on Sunday that it is a “done deal” that Democrats will retake the House in November. He added that it was a “very realistic” possibility that Democrats would take the Senate, as well. “A year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip,” he said. Also on Sunday, Senator Thom Tillis took the extraordinary step of implying that Republicans may have to give up on his own seat in order to keep the majority. Mr. Tillis is retiring, and the race between a Democratic former governor, Roy Cooper, and the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Whatley, has consistently had Mr. Cooper as the favorite. “This has to be about the higher purpose of keeping a majority in the Senate — not any one candidate,” Mr. Tillis said on CNN’s “State of the Union, arguing that money would be better spent in Texas, Ohio, or Maine. The great hope for Republicans appears to be money from Mr. Trump’s own super PAC, MAGA Inc., which had more than $400 on its balance sheet as of the last filing period. Mr. Trump has reserved more than $130 million worth of ad time so far, leaving Republicans hoping that a money bomb in the coming weeks could help save their Senate majority.

Welcome to Washington: The Week That Spooked Senate Republicans

Welcome to Washington: The Week That Spooked Senate Republicans

More from the New York Sun

Short of Soldiers, Ukraine Is Building a ‘Robot Army’

‘A Strange Choice’: Trump Plans Red State Swing During Midterm Final Stretch

Mamdani Revives Promise To Disband NYPD Terrorism Squad in Arabic-Tinged Remarks

‘Gravity of the Charges’ Delays James Comey Arraignment Until 2027 as Judge Weighs Motions To Dismiss

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni Fends Off Challenge From Her Right, Bolstering Center-Conservative Coalition

Stellar Cast Makes ‘School Girls’ a Class Act

Alito Makes Last-Minute Decision To Recuse Himself From Landmark Climate Chase Case

Justice Alito Defaults on the Duty To Sit

More from the New York Sun

Short of Soldiers, Ukraine Is Building a ‘Robot Army’

‘A Strange Choice’: Trump Plans Red State Swing During Midterm Final Stretch

Mamdani Revives Promise To Disband NYPD Terrorism Squad in Arabic-Tinged Remarks

‘Gravity of the Charges’ Delays James Comey Arraignment Until 2027 as Judge Weighs Motions To Dismiss

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni Fends Off Challenge From Her Right, Bolstering Center-Conservative Coalition

Stellar Cast Makes ‘School Girls’ a Class Act

Alito Makes Last-Minute Decision To Recuse Himself From Landmark Climate Chase Case

Justice Alito Defaults on the Duty To Sit