Who Will Benefit From Israeli Voter Enthusiasm? 60,000 Israelis Fly Home To Vote

TEL AVIV — Tempers are fraying in Israel as election day looms. As if to make the point, a man and woman are fighting loudly nearby over which side to support. “Bibi won’t win,” the man yells. “But didn’t we decide we would vote for him no matter what,” the woman answers in an even more passionate voice.In casual, and slightly less fraught conversations, a more common question is “Are you voting?” rather than a version of the above: “who are you voting for?” It is clear that most Israelis made up their minds long ago. Turnout therefore is expected to determine the results as Israel elects its next Knesset for the first time since the October 7, 2023, massacre. That tragedy is driving more voters to the polls than in 2022, as is the fact that four years ago elections were so frequent that voters lost interest.One television channel, Kan News, is planning to announce turnout statistics in each polling station four times during the day Tuesday. Kan will also show the participation rates at different zones of the country, which could prove a hint for the final results. Jerusalem, for one, has traditionally voted largely for right wing and orthodox parties, while Tel Aviv tended to be more liberal. Either way, it is quite unlikely that Israelis will know who won as they go to sleep after exit polls are projected at 10 pm Tuesday. Last week’s final opinion polls showed that neither of the main party blocs would gather 61 Knesset members, which is the needed for control of the Knesset.Another decisive factor could be Israelis who live outside the country. “The left has paid to fly in voters who are living abroad to turn the election their way,” Mr. Netanyahu said Monday. According to the airport authorities up to 60,000 Israelis landed at Ben Gurion airport in the last few days to participate in the vote.Total turnout is projected to be more than 70 percent of eligible voters. Yet as voters from both camps seem equally adamant that their side is right, it is unclear which bloc would end up benefitting from the voters’ enthusiasm. “To become prime minister, one of them would have to turn his back on pre-election promises,” a friend at the Tel Aviv beach told The New York Sun.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to maintain a “fully right” government. His main competitor, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, announced that to become premier he would only rely on “Zionists” who agree that Israel is a Jewish and democratic country. To win, though, Mr. Netanyahu might need to coalesce with one or more of the opposition parties that he now defines as “far left.” Mr. Eisenkot, meanwhile, could be forced to join hands with Arab parties that are widely seen as non-Zionist.Another of Mr. Eisenkot’s pathway to the prime minister office is guaranteeing a Knesset majority with Likud defectors. Those could be available if Mr. Netanyahu seems less likely to win.”We must be largest party,” Mr. Eisenkot announces almost daily. His top strategist, a former army general, Ronen Manelis, has devised a campaign to ensure that the Yashar (“Straight”) party would end up significantly larger than Mr. Netayahu’s Likud. That way, the thinking goes, President Isaac Herzog will give Mr. Eisenkot first dibs at trying to gather a ruling coalition. Mr. Eisenkot’s would-be coalition partners, though, are far from enamored with Yashar’s emphasis on the need to become the largest party. Leaders of the Democrats and Together parties, Yair Golan and Yair Lapid, respectively, denounced Mr. Eisenkot’s campaign, fearing that it would shrink their own parties and perhaps even be harmful for the “change bloc.” Similar complaints were heard by leaders of smaller parties in Mr. Netanyahu’s camp. Election day in Israel is a public holiday. In polling places, citizens are faced with an array of printed cards that carry block letters of the alphabet, each of which represents a party. The cards are inserted into an envelope, which is then dropped into a box. Polling places open at 7 am and close at 10 pm. The last few hours are likely to see the longest lines of voters eager to select their next leadership.Four basic party blocs of up to 13 viable parties are competing in the election: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and other right wingers; the so-called “change bloc” of four secular-liberal parties; the ultra orthodox; and Arab parties. With an expected large turnout, two small parties might fail to reach the 3.25 percent of eligible voters, which is necessary for the minimum of 4 Knesset members. If any of these two parties reaches the threshold, it could become the decisive member of a winning coalition.

Who Will Benefit From Israeli Voter Enthusiasm? 60,000 Israelis Fly Home To Vote

Who Will Benefit From Israeli Voter Enthusiasm? 60,000 Israelis Fly Home To Vote

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