Will Cuba Be Free Before Iran?

The Cuban regime, a thorn on America’s side since 1959, appears to be in its last throes as conditions on the Caribbean island are deteriorating. Angry citizens are protesting in the streets. Can anyone at Havana play ball with Washington so a debilitating oil embargo can be lifted? An electric grid that was already failing has now collapsed and the island is in complete darkness. Even before the recent American oil embargo, Havana was failing to deliver basic necessities to its citizens. Food shortages are becoming acute. With no available gasoline, those beautiful mid-1950s Chrysler DeSotos are permanently parked.Angry Cubans are out on the streets. A younger generation is not as prone to Communist indoctrination as in the past. Memories are fading of the late Fidel Castro’s charismatic Communist zeal, which successors can’t match. Access to the internet, though sporadic and slow, allows Cubans a glimpse into the real world, which looks very different from what “Granma” and other state-owned news outlets have portrayed. Then there is Mr. Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine,” the updated version of Presidents James Monroe and Teddy Roosevelt’s focus on the Western Hemisphere. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a son of Cuban emigres who is close to Miami’s Little Havana’s community, where little love is lost in respect of Castro. “Cuba is a failed nation,” Mr. Trump told reporters over the weekend. “Cuba also wants to make a deal. And I think we will pretty soon either make a deal, or do whatever we have to do.” While it and other such statements sound as if a complete regime change is around the corner, the president seems more enamored with the Venezuela model, and hopes to replicate it in Cuba. Mr. Trump “wants to keep the regime,” a former Mexican foreign minister who now teaches Latin America studies at the Sorbonne, Jorge Castaneda, tells the Sun. The White House seeks to “have the government make a series of economic reforms, including things like private property, Cuban-American investment, allowing the peasantry to grow stuff and sell it, open markets — that sort of thing.”Many of such reforms are required by American statute before the American government can begin a process of recognition of Cuba.America decapitated the Chavista regime at Caracas by arresting the illegitimate president, Nicolas Maduro, and installing in power his deputy, Delcy Rodriguez. While a die-hard acolyte of the Maduro regime, Ms. Rodriguez is now under Washington’s thumb, and is subject to Mr. Trump’s policies. “The relationship with Venezuela has been fantastic,” Mr. Trump told reporters this week. “Millions, literally millions of barrels of oil are being taken out,” and “There’s a lot of oil under that land,” he said. Now he seems to seek a Delcy Rodriguez-like personality at Tehran and other America-hating regimes, including Havana.Cuba, though, “is not Venezuela in many ways,” the founder and executive director of the human rights think tank Cuba Archive, Maria Werlau, tells the Sun. “Venezuela has oil, Cuba doesn’t. Venezuela has minerals, Cuba doesn’t.” Hence, she adds, “Cuba is much more vulnerable to U.S. pressures.” Trump Is Seeking a ‘Friendly Takeover’President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed recently that the country is in talks with American officials. The White House also indicated that talks are underway. Mr. Rubio reportedly has contacted Raul Castro’s grandson, Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito,” as well as with other regime players. Havana is hoping that the promise of reform would help appease the White House.“Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies” and also with “Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants,” Havana’s foreign trade minister and deputy prime minister, Oscar Perez-Oliva, told NBC News on Monday. For now, though, America is keeping the embargo, and Mr. Trump says he is hoping for a “friendly takeover” of the island. Havana’s Dependence on the Kindness of StrangersFor decades during the Cold War, the Soviet Union served as Havana’s top benefactor. Moscow gave the term “sugar daddy” a new meaning by paying cash for Cuban sugar cane it barely needed. In return, the KGB gained a listening post 90 miles away from America’s mainland and the Kremlin armed the Castro regime. After the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Castro turned to a new patron. Caracas supplied all of Cuba’s energy needs while Havana sent doctors and regime enforcers to Venezuela. This year, as America blocked Venezuela’s oil deliveries, the Mexican leftist government sought to fill the void, announcing it would export oil to Cuba.President Claudia Sheinbaum’s mentor as president of Mexico, Andres Manual Lopez Obrador, is a Castroite and long-time Havana ally. Yet Ms. Sheinbaum also seeks close relations with Washington. Hence her promise of oil to flow to Cuba quickly fizzled. “As soon as Trump said no more, that was it,” the former Mexican foreign minister, Mr. Castaneda, says. What Is Cuba Good for Anyway?With little to offer beyond a deteriorating cigar industry and no tourism left, Cuba’s value to America is much less than what foes like Iran or Venezuela can offer. Yet a Havana that no longer spreads anti-Yanqui hate in Latin America could be helpful for any president seeking more influence in the Western Hemisphere. “Cuba is the reason Venezuela went downhill,” Ms. Werlau says. “Cuba is a reason that this new communist ideal socialism of the 20th century has spread, affecting U.S. interests. Cuba is probably involved with things in the United States contrary to stability and democracy.”Yet rehabilitating a country that has been neglected by a failing regime for decades could take a long time. Even if the oil embargo is lifted, repairing the electric grid, for one, is a complex task that would require outside investment. Unless a Cuban Delcy Rodriguez emerges, that kind of investment might be slow to emerge. And raises the question: Will Cuba be free before Iran?

Will Cuba Be Free Before Iran?

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