Five Ways the Israeli Election Might Play Out

Israel’s top contenders for the premiership are increasingly looking for improbable parties to partner with the day after next Tuesday’s election, which might not provide an outright victor to lead the nation for the next four years.Opinion polls vary on the question of which would-be premier is favored to lead the country. Rather than electing leaders, though, Israeli voters choose parties to serve in the Knesset. In most cases, the head of the winningest party is tasked with forming the executive leadership team, though leaders of smaller parties can occasionally negotiate his or her way to the top spot.By next Wednesday the leaders of the top two blocs — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot — will start seeking support from the majority of elected Knesset members. One of these contenders could succeed in capturing the support of at least 61 of 120 Knesset members, and lead the country in the next four-year term. Polls, though, are raising doubt that either the premier’s camp or the anti-Bibi bloc will get to that magic 61 number. If no majority is found, a weak government might be formed, which could collapse in short order — or even a repeat election would then be announced.Small parties could prove decisive, if they can garner 3.25 percent of all counted votes. That is the threshold needed to enter the Knesset with a minimum of four members. On Monday, a former political star, Benny Gantz, announced his withdrawal from the race, as his Blue and White party polled at one percent, far below the required threshold. Mr. Gantz’s withdrawal could boost another party, the Zionist Home and Reservists, which was already polling near the threshold numbers, but now could be boosted by voters who had considered backing Mr. Gantz.“Of course we can get in, and we will support a leadership of centrist Zionists,” the author Einat Wilf, who is number three in the Zionist Home and Reservists party list, tells The New York Sun.“We reject this talk of blocs,” Ms. Wilf says. The system, she adds, “is like a Lego game, in which each leader is attempting to use Krazy Glue to weld building blocks together. The minute you announce you’re a member of this or that block, you cease to be a building block and become part of the Krazy Glue. You tell voters who you’d support, rather than what you’re for.”Scenario One: Bibi WinsMr. Netanyahu is hoping to cash in on President Trump’s unprecedented endorsement Sunday. Likud party’s opponents as outside interference in Israel’s internal politics immediately panned the endorsement as interference in Israel’s internal politics.Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu share an American pollster, John McLaughlin. The American endorsement could have been guided by internal polling showing the Bibi camp could beat the bloc led by Mr. Eisenkot’s Yashar (“straight”) party. Mr. Netanyahu has attacked a right winger, former IDF general Ofer Winter, out of fear that the latter’s small “Amcha” party may fail to reach the necessary threshold, stealing precious votes from the right-wing bloc. Mr. Gantz’s withdrawal, though, could boost Mr. Winter’s chances of entering the Knesset. Until recently, the premier also assailed another problematic partner, Itamat Ben Gvir. On Monday, though, Mr. Netanyahu sought Mr. Ben Gvir’s support as the firebrand politician’s party seemed to gain in polls. “Ben Gvir will be a senior minister in our government,” Mr. Netanyahu said. Another problematic Netanyahu partner could be the religious parties, known as Haredim. “We have no agreement to support any of the sides,” the chairman of the United Torah Judaism, Ya’akov Asher, told i24 News on Monday. Other Haredi leaders made clear that a new law to force Orthodox youths’ recruitment to the army would be a deal breaker to participation in a new coalition.Scenario Two: Eisenkot Wins Mr. Netnayhu has proven in the past that he can adeptly overcome objections from would-be partners. Mr. Eisenkot, in contrast, is a new face, which could be an asset or hindrance, depending on his cat-herding talents.Three parties beside Mr. Eisenkot’s “Yashar” are in the anti-Bibi camp. A veteran hawk who opposes any cooperation with Mr. Netanyahu, Avigdor Liberman, is on the right spectrum of that coalition. A party uniting two former prime ministers, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is in the center, and Yair Golan of the Democrats, is on the left. Unlike Mr. Netanyahu, though, Mr. Eisenkot could rely on a likely large bloc of unaffiliated Arab parties, which polls predict would capture as many as 15 Knesset seats. Mr. Golan says he supports such a coalition, which could make Mr. Eisenkot the next premier. Mr. Eisenkot, for now, vows not to rely on the Arabs, and Mr. Liberman threatens to bolt the bloc altogether if it relies on Arab parties that oppose Israel as a Jewish-majority state. Scenario Three: A TieIsraeli polls fluctuate widely, and depend on the political bent of the television stations that conduct them. Other than the staunchly pro-Bibi Channel 14, all pollsters predict that the two major blocs would fall short of the necessary 61 Knesset member majority needed to hash out a coalition without the Arab bloc. Unless Mr. Eisenkot can convince his partners that unseating Mr. Netanyahu trumps their aversion to a coalition relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties, the result could lead to a virtual tie, which could lead to a new election. Scenario Four: None of the AboveA possible tie could lead to a deadlock. In that case, a new election could be declared. Mr. Netanyahu would remain premier, leading a caretaker government and freezing in place the current political landscape.The Israeli president, according to law, decides which of the candidates would get first crack at coalition building. The decision by President Issac Herzog, a former centrist premier-wannabe, is likely to depend on which party gets the largest number of votes.Mr. Eisenkot urges anti-Bibi voters to choose Yashar, so he would be the first to attempt a coalition. In case of a deadlock, though, other members of the anti-Bibi bloc would seek to replace Mr. Eisenkot as leader. Mr. Herzog, though, could become an arbiter. He is known to prefer a unity government, and might give a priority to anyone who could mesh the blocs. Final Scenario: No ElectionThe Democrats’ Mr. Golan told the Sun’s Jotam Confino that if Mr. Netanyahu senses he could lose the election, he might restart a war with Iran to prevent a vote. Disruptions could come from other directions too. The IDF is on high alert after warning that some of the Islamic Republic’s allies are planning terrorist attacks before or on October 27.On Monday the IDF Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, cancelled all leaves for recruits and raised the alert level in anticipation of an imminent attack. The military, he said, is prepared for any scenario, to ensure that the election is uninterrupted.

Five Ways the Israeli Election Might Play Out

Five Ways the Israeli Election Might Play Out

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