Slim Chances of UN Revival as a Leadership Race Heats Up

Can a new United Nations chief revive a stale, musty organization that for at least a decade operated on auto-pilot and worked itself out of relevance on central issues? As Turtle Bay begins the process of picking a new leader among its insiders, hopes of renewal seem slim at best. One new innovation, meant to increase transparency in the opaque process of selecting a UN secretary general, occurred last week. The president of the general assembly, Annalena Baerbock, invited each of four declared candidates to make their case to member states. Two women and two men answered questions and even faced the press afterward.This novel exercise was mostly performative though, as public scrutiny has little to do with how a UN chief is picked. The process is more secretive than those smoke-filled rooms of yore. A candidate needs to secure the approval of three powerful world powers. The 193 countries that are members of the general assembly serve as a rubber stamp for the 15-member security council, including its five veto-wielding permanent members: America, Russia, Communist China, Britain, and France. In reality, though, Washington, Beijing, and Moscow are the ultimate deciders. Satisfying these three top powers, whose interests often clash, rarely gives rise to a strong-willed, capable leader. A mediocre candidate will likely be best suited for the job. The new secretary general is widely expected to be selected by early October to allow for three months of transition. By late December, the man who presided over the UN for the last 10 years, Secretary General Antonio Guterres, will leave the 38th floor of the headquarters building, “and not a moment too soon,” a UN official recently told The New York Sun. Mr. Guterres “has really taken the place down,” a senior director of the national security council for international organizations in President Trump’s first term, Hugh Dugan, tells the Sun. Top powers, he says, might now conclude that “we don’t have to argue about reform. We have to argue about the rebuild.”Women: Can a Latina Be the Answer?The UN has never been led by a female, and many argue a correction is due. Additionally, it might now be Latin America’s “turn” in a traditional regional rotation. Yet ten years ago several women from the former Soviet Union and Oceania threw their hats in the ring. Portugal’s Mr. Guterres emerged late in the game and beat the competition. To compensate for his victory, he then vowed to nominate women to top positions. Dark Horses: Late Comers Can WinWaiting in the wings are several candidates, including several women from Latin America. The current Under Secretary General for Management, Catherine Pollard of Guyana, is whispered as a possible candidate. Another emerging candidate, Maria Espinoza of Ecuador, served as president of the UN general assembly.After America, Russia, or Communist China reject the initial candidate they might take a look at the a tier — and Ms. Espinoza is “a knowledgeable practitioner who’s not been in the secretariat, or anything related to the UN system,” Mr. Dugan says. She might be able to emerge as the one who is untainted by the UN downturn spiral. Meanwhile, these are the four candidates already in the race:Rebecca Grynspan: No ArmyA former vice president of Costa Rica, Ms. Grynspan seems to have all the right credentials. She comes from a country that eschews a national military force. To run for the top job she quit her position as the UN Conference on Trade and Development chief. Plus, beyond the first woman, she would also be the first Jewish UN chief. Critics say though that despite her background Ms. Greenspan might fail to address a major American concern. As a UN insider the Costa Rican “operated comfortably within the prevailing institutional consensus that singles out Israel for disproportionate criticism,” a veteran UN watcher, Eve Epstein, writes in the Times of Israel. Rafael Grossi: Too Strong?The current chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mr. Grossi, 65, of Argentina is better known outside UN circles for his role in two major wars. He is handling a crisis surrounding a Russian-occupied Ukrainian nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia, and oversees the now-dormant UN inspections of Iran’s nuclear activities. Navigating these two crises might doom his candidacy. Moscow is sensitive about Ukraine, and quietly fumes over Mr. Grossi’s reports on Iran’s non-compliance. Additionally, as the Falkland-Malvinas dispute risers, Britain might nix an Argentine’s candidacy. Michelle Bachelet: Chilled ReceptionA 74-year old former Chilean president, Ms. Bachelet has served in several top UN positions, including Commissioner of human rights. Chile declined to endorse her, so she secured the backing of Mexico and Brazil. The Santiago snub doomed her already-shaking candidacy, which is widely seen as a doomed vanity campaign. Macky Sall: Africa Wants in, TooA 12-year president of Senegal, the 64-year-old Mr. Sall has also failed to secure the backing of his own country, even though he got Burundi to nominate him. Last week a large group of vocal supporters demonstrated in front of the UN building, all wearing white MAGA-like hats. Africa has had 15 years at the top of the UN, and Mr. Sall’s candidacy is yet to ignite much enthusiasm. The Process: Secretive Straw BallotsAs the candidate field is finalized, toward the end of the summer, the Security Council will conduct several secret votes to “encourage,” “discourage,” or express no opinion on each of the candidates. A vote will ensue on a candidate who got no discouraging votes, and the general assembly will rubber stamp the decision. The process is expected to conclude in early October, allowing a three months of transition before the new chief enters office next January 1.

Slim Chances of UN Revival as a Leadership Race Heats Up

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