Welcome to Washington: Democrats Open a Lead in Early Vote Turnout — but Does It Matter?

Democrats are angry — at President Trump, at their own party’s leadership, and at the structure of our political system itself. They are undeniably motivated to vote, according to polling and higher turnout in the early vote. That latter data point isn’t always predictive, however. Welcome to Washington, the city from which lawmakers have fled as they head into the final sprint of the midterm elections. It is an almost universally held opinion that control of the House will be handed to Democrats in just two weeks, while most operatives’ concerns have now shifted to the Senate. Just 18 months ago, it would have been impossible to see Democrats with a path to retaking the Senate with this year’s map. It appears they have put themselves on the cusp of such a victory, however. Both parties have abandoned the North Carolina Senate race, where Democrats are expected to win. In other battleground states like Maine, Michigan, and Georgia, turnout has spiked, in some cases far above early turnout at this same point in the 2022 midterm elections. On the first day of early voting last week, Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, announced that the state had far surpassed turnout during the first day of voting in 2022, calling it “a testament to our strong election system overseen by 159 of the best county election officials in the country.” Last week, on the first day of voting, more than 188,000 ballots had been cast. On the first day of voting in the 2022 midterm elections, only about 135,000 were cast. As of Sunday, Georgia is still on track to cast more ballots in 2026 than during the midterms four years ago.North Carolina, Iowa, and Maine — three states where Democrats are looking to flip Senate seats — have also seen an increase in early vote turnout relative to 2022. In North Carolina, more than half-a-million votes have been banked, while in 2022, fewer than 363,000 ballots had been cast at the same point during that year’s early voting period. In states that do track the partisan turnout of those who vote early, Democrats are largely outpacing their 2024 turnout. In Nebraska, where Democrats are backing an independent candidate, Democrats make up 45 percent of those who have voted, while Republicans only make up 38 percent. In 2024, at this same point in the early vote period, Democrats had cast 41 percent of ballots compared to Republicans’ 42 percent — a swing of eight points toward the Democrats. As many experts have pointed out, early vote turnout is not always predictive, though there are examples. In 2025, Florida held two special elections in House districts, both of which President Trump carried by more than 30 points in 2024. By election day, the share of the early vote cast by Democrats increased by between 15 and 20 points in both districts. By the time votes were counted, both districts had moved significantly to the left — about 15 points — relative to Mr. Trump’s most recent victory. Changes in early vote procedures, the big question mark of election day turnout, and the share of voters who actually cast early ballots, among other things, introduce so many variables that it can be hard to glean much. “It is important to remember that many voters will still cast their ballots on Election Day, and that stronger early voting for a party than in a previous election can sometimes just mean they are cannibalizing voters who otherwise still would have voted on Election Day,” the head of data science at VoteHub, Zachary Donnini, wrote in a recent breakdown of how to interpret early voting. Despite the lack of definitive predictability overall in early voting as a sign of what’s to come, a great sign for Democrats is this — two critical elements of their base are showing up: high-propensity voters and black voters. As of last Monday, 82 percent of votes cast have come from those who voted in both the 2024 election and the 2022 midterms. In Georgia — one state that does offer racial data on early turnout — black voters make up a larger share of the turnout than they did in 2024 when Mr. Trump won the state and in 2022, when a Democrat was re-elected to the Senate but the GOP held the governor’s mansion.

Welcome to Washington: Democrats Open a Lead in Early Vote Turnout — but Does It Matter?

Welcome to Washington: Democrats Open a Lead in Early Vote Turnout — but Does It Matter?

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